SW Radio Africa recently interviewed Tony Reeler head of the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) about the Zimbabwean crisis and what will resolve it. Read more here and below is an excerpt:

GONDA: And what are the main concerns of the people on the ground, especially the people that participated in the survey?

REELER: Well we asked them a very interesting question. We asked them what is the way forward? And we gave them a choice of – what are the three most important things for you to solve the problems with Zimbabwe? And that came back in rank order, three things. They said Number One – an end to violence, Number Two – free and fair elections and Number Three – democracy and those are very important things coming from ordinary citizens because that’s what has continuously emerged from the Afro-barometer surveys over the last five or six years – is they show that Zimbabweans have a very acute understanding of what democracy is, its manifestations and that they also have a very acute understanding that they don’t have a democracy.

So what you can see is Zimbabweans want a solution, they want a solution in a particular way, they want elections that are non-violent that restore democracy essentially. I think they also said there has been some improvement due to the inclusive government and the Global Political Agreement and they saw some improvements in health and a few improvements in education but they also saw many areas in which there was no improvement whatsoever. What we are hearing from discussions within communities are people who are deeply concerned about whether this Global Political Agreement and the inclusive government is working and people who are very concerned that there is a resolution to this crisis. And I think what people are saying is they understand quite clearly that the solution to a political crisis will be an election. That’s the Zimbabwean perspective. In other countries what used to happen was that you used to have military coups or rebellions as we’ve had to do to get rid of white colonial power here but Zimbabweans are saying they put their faith in an electoral process. That’s what they hope will resolve the crisis and clearly what that means is, is that people’s votes translate into the reality they expect and the majority of people, when they vote, expect a particular outcome, that they will in fact elect the party of their choice.

I went to get my hair done yesterday, nothing fancy, just cornrows to get through the rest of the winter. Not being patient I knew that sitting in the hairdresser’s chair for close to three hours wouldn’t be easy. But I felt that the end justified the wait and the pain of having someone tugging at my scalp. I wanted a change. As I sat, watching the chaotic black-brown bush on my head become tame and transform into something new and orderly, it occurred to me that change is gradual, and sometimes painful. As much as I wished it were, change can never be an event, it is a process.

We are in the process of change. It’s difficult to tell what kind of change from one day to the next, or even if there is progression, particularly when sitting in the dark with a half cooked meal during winter.  But there has been change.

The signing of the GPA was met with much jubilation, celebration and most importantly hope. It restored many Zimbabweans faith in their country and to some extent their leaders. Suddenly there was talk of a working economy, and things like democracy and rule of law returning to Zimbabwe. At the time, that hope was essential, but the faith was misplaced. The GNU was not meant to be the event at the end of the process: it is the process itself. The Inclusive Government isn’t everything: it is not efficient, it is not incorrupt, it is not a democratic dispensation, and it is not a perfect solution.

But it is a solution. Almost two years after the GPA has been signed, we are very articulate about what the Inclusive Government is not, and what it has failed to do. A survey taken by the Research and Advocacy Unit late last year posed the question ‘Do you feel that the GNU has improved your life?’

Significantly most people answered no.

Perhaps the entire perspective on the GNU and its purpose is wrong. It was never meant to be a lasting solution to a problem that took several decades to create. It was supposed to be a vehicle for change. Not just political change, but also change within ourselves. This change is indeed slow, and often painful. Never the less it is a change.

Trudy Stevenson, one of Zimbabwe’s most energetic and people focused politicians has become Zimbabwe’s Ambassador to Senegal. I miss her vibrancy but her Letters from Dakar are both inspiring and informative. Here’s a short excerpt from her latest one:

Meanwhile two of my three phases of electricity were inadvertently dug up by the nearby road works two weeks ago, so once again I had an emergency – on opening night of the World Cup, OF COURSE!!  So we couldn’t watch South Africa play the opening match, except that by amazing luck I have the MOST GENEROUS NEIGHBOURS!  They are Australians, and had organised a TV in the road reserved outside for all our security guards to watch the month-long World Cup, and the TV is connected both to their mains electricity and to their generator – so when the power went off, we sheepishly wandered outside, and were welcomed to join the guards – and watched Bafana Bafana draw 1-1!  There were about 25 people watching that TV, including another diplomat, the Hungarian consul-general who lives 3 houses away!  We were terribly bitten by mosquitoes, but we didn’t notice at the time!  Now we’re heavily into World Cup – but also terribly disappointed by our African teams, all of whom we have been supporting.  Tonight we’re undecided who to switch our allegiance to, after watching Nigeria’s defeat by Korea . . . we shall see!

Here is another article from Rejoice Ngwenya entitled The Folly of African Entrepreneurship:

Zimbabwe, like most developing African countries burdened with the yoke of authoritarian oppression, force-feeds citizens with policy prescriptions only meant to satisfy political egos of ruling elite.  Imposing government ministries of ‘small and medium enterprises’ and ‘indigenisation’ would not suddenly turn Zimbabwe into an industrialised country.

Similarly, investing millions of United States Dollars in education infrastructure to offer business administration training would by itself not achieve much in economic growth.  It is in this context that my cousin who teaches block release students of Masters of Business Administration at a derelict Zimbabwean state university in the midlands city of Gweru makes a stunning observation about the folly of African entrepreneurship.  Notwithstanding the exploits of world-renown African businesspersons like Mo Ibrahim [Sudan], Patrice Motsepe [South Africa], Strive Masiyiwa [Zimbabwe] et al, there is a tendency for emerging economies to over emphasise the virtues of trading as symptomatic of entrepreneurial instincts in Africans.  Vast flea and vegetable markets in Cairo, Casablanca, Accra, Nairobi, Lusaka, Harare and Johannesburg cannot be credible litmus test for successful business, because, according to my cousin, they do not contribute to real economic development. This school of thought is supported by 20th Century economist Joseph Schumpeter.

Zimbabwean ministers of ‘small enterprises’ and ‘indigenisation’ – Sithembiso Nyoni and Saviour Kasukuwere respectively – epitomize the flourishing species of authoritarian regime praise singers who perpetuate the lie that simply buying and selling amounts to entrepreneurship.  Ironically, it is dictators that buy votes by deceiving citizens into non value adding, non innovative ‘income generating’ activities only meant to fill up ballot boxes. Wikipedia isolates Israel Kirzner as one in a few economists who associates entrepreneurship with innovation or value addition.  Importing clothes and cars from Dubai and disposing them off to Harare consumers has no value addition. Countries like Zimbabwe, Swaziland and the Democratic Republic of Congo are politically unstable, with a productive industry decimated by decades of senseless dictatorship, yet their economies are said to have ‘survived’ because of ‘enterprising and resilient citizens’. What a load of hogwash!

Says Wikipedia: “The entrepreneur is widely regarded as an integral player in the business culture of American life, and particularly as an engine for job creation and economic growth.” A country develops while its economy grows when citizens create new products and services that result in more people being employed, consuming and adding to the national fiscus. During electoral campaigns, dictators like Robert Mugabe splash out computers, buses and money to political sympathisers under the guise of ‘economic development and empowerment’. As a result of this patronage, the country fails even to produce cooking oil, soap and shoes because there are no efforts to encourage sustainable innovation. My cousin therefore is correct that Zimbabwe, like most African countries suffering from authoritarian dictatorship, will remain underdeveloped until we transform our political thinking.

No doubt the MBA students he encounters are victims of an education system that was meant to produce workers rather than innovators. It is a poisonous system that infects even financial institutions like Standard Bank Zimbabwe who seek survival from customers with ‘proven’ salary and wages rather than ‘risky’ entrepreneurship.  There is a link between sustainable entrepreneurship and financing, and this chain translates into long term survival of the banking sector.  In a 2009 paper entitled “Banking Deregulations, Financing Constraints and Firm Entry Size” Harvard academics William R. Kerr and Ramana Nanda quote Michelacci and Silva who stress that “better financial access explains why local entrepreneurs operate larger firms…”  In other words, the nexus between finance, entrepreneurship, sustainability and long term growth is an undeniable fact of life.

The Standard Bank, like most conservative ‘orthodox’ commercial banks, has this skewed policy imprint confusing innovation with entrepreneurship. And for good reason. The default rate for unsecured loans has been known to bring down the banking sector. Yet Kerr and Nanda have it on good authority that restrictive regulations in financing innovation are a negative force in the economic growth projectile. This is why it is critically important for us Africans to understand and appreciate the meaning and implication of true entrepreneurship. We must exorcise the demon afflicting banks like Standard that only salary cheques are safe as collateral in securing loans.

At one time in the early part of this decade, Zimbabwean banks or more specifically the financial sector, was registering phenomenal ‘growth’, yet citizens were getting poorer and GDP was shrinking. This was prelude to the ‘annexation’ of banks by Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, and eventually others collapsed under accusation by [Gono] of perpetuating impropriety.  It was during the same period that inflation spiralled to six digits while Zimbabwe’s productive sector almost disappeared. But the strange phenomenon was of a booming ‘entrepreneurship’ in cross border trade, flourishing flea markets and countless trips between China, Dubai and Zimbabwe. In rural areas, young men were digging up the country side to extract and sell gold. Something was clearly wrong.

I therefore conclude this treatise by reasserting the need for us Africans to create new social and business solutions as an entry point to entrepreneurship. Deficits in public communication, governance, food, education, health, industry, commerce and infrastructure are an ideal opportunity to innovate for profit. This is what drives industrialisation, not selling jeans at open markets or vegetables and curios along the freeways. Moreover, financial institutions like the conservative Standard Bank of Zimbabwe defeat the cause of entrepreneurship by not promoting individual inventors but relying on wage and salary remittances. At a time when national productive capacity is below 40%, it is difficult to perceive how a serious bank can ignore entrepreneurs and non-profit organisations on its menu of attracting business. In its haste to pour scorn on ‘flea market entrepreneurs’, the bank has adopted collective condemnation even of those self-employed consultants  who sustained it with valuable foreign currency deposits when the Zimbabwe dollar was toilet paper.  What is now urgent is to overhaul Zimbabwean national economic policy to foster a commitment to innovation rather than flea markets and Chinese toy shops.

Zimbabwe’s formal economy has been struggling to survive whilst the informal sector has become the key to livelihood. There seems to be a change for the better in many sectors including the fuel sector where service stations now have good stocks of the precious liquid. But black market activities have not ended completely. As one drives up to the pumps in most service stations a swarm of young boys approach you selling coupons at a price cheaper than that pump price.

One wonders how this illegal business is viable given that the fuel price is on the rise the world over? My talk to one informal trader of coupons provided a shocking revelation, which left me close to bursting with anger. He said some people have diesel coupons yet they want petrol so they negotiate an exchange with these dealers who in turn charge a fee for the deal. It also emerged that some people have easy access to coupons, which they sell at a discount on the black market. It also emerged that the key suppliers of fuel are government officials including Members of Parliament who offload thousands of liters on the black market in the form of coupons.

The vendor revealed that yesterday (17 June 2010) some of his colleagues had a fight over about 5000 liters of fuel coupons, which a certain MP had come to offload at the BP Service Station on the corner of Fourth Street and Samora Machel Avenue. The dealers normally buy one 25-litre fuel coupon at US$22 and sell at US$25. The MP is said to have come with two full books of coupons of which one is 2500 liters worth of coupons. The MP is said to have asked the boys to offer good money, and they started bidding against each other, until they could buy the two books at US$24 per coupon.

The fight and the supply of fuel is not my problem; but the problem is where do these MPs get that much of fuel to sell on the black market? It becomes suspicious especially at a time when these MPs are set to take on a big role in the constitution making process. To make the deal more suspicious the MP is reported to have refused to receive the money on the spot. Instead he offered to carry the boys to some unnamed hotel to finish the deal. The government is broke and civil servants are sacrificing themselves to work without enough take-home money. Yet the politicians are busy lining their pockets with national resources. Lately the MPs have been demanding unrealistically hefty rewards for taking part in the constitution making process.

If they get these coupons from the government, one wonders how one person is given that many coupons at once? The administration has a case to answer. It is really disappointing to note that corrupt tendencies are at the top of the government. How will we heal the economy when the healing system comprises rotten elements? The first healing step is to bring these elements to book. Who then should lead the investigation and the arrest of these people?

Zimbabweans have grown to learn by experience that the Government of National Unity (GNU) was nothing but a marriage of covenience. During the signing ceremony, party leaders gave the impression that the leaders had really cemented a deal of unity. People had a new sense of hope, hope for a better country, a free and prosperous Zimbabwe.

Now reality is surfacing – about two years down the line there are still pending issues. Jacob Zuma and his team have come and left the country countless times. The negotiation teams are always negotiating until no one knows when. The news is that elections will be in 2011 soon after the new constitution. Who confirmed that the referendum will agree to the constitution when the process is marked by some reports of violence and intimidation? Mutambara is of the view that the country is not yet ready for elections next year. True as it might be, his rather more powerful collegues have no option but to call for the elections.

What it all shows is that one hand and one fist are still fighting strong battles when the body they intended to protect is in trouble. The GNU was just a shift of the battlefields and maybe a shift of tactics of attack – war is still on and peace is not guaranteed.

Zimbabwe is still in tatters and our leaders are busy setting ambushes and employing guerrilla tactics against each other. Shame on the poor majority who are fed lies without choice, arm-twisted into doing and saying what they would not if they were properly informed. We wonder when political freedom will exist in this country? We call upon the GNU principals to come back to the basics and consider the reasons, which led into this marriage, which they now tramp upon without achieving its intended objectives.