Trevor Ncube is the proprietor of M&G Media, owner of the Mail & Guardian; he is also publisher of the Zimbabwean newspapers The Standard, The Zimbabwe Independent and NewsDay. Here’s come recent reflections from Trevor:

Zimbabwe is neither Tunisia nor Egypt. Far from it! In fact, Zimbabwe’s political predicament is far worse than that of these two North African countries before their recent revolutions.

But events in the two countries have certainly planted ideas in Zimbabweans’ minds that may influence the country’s future in a significant way.

Comparisons can be odious but this is an exercise worth doing in this instance. Until Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution and Egypt’s Nile Revolution, both were considered passive and docile societies. Zimbabweans are equally perceived as apathetic and docile for having tolerated Robert Mugabe’s repressive regime for so long. Their fear of Mugabe’s army, police, intelligence agents and youth militia has kept in check any desire to demand freedom through revolutionary means.

Similarly, for decades Egyptians and Tunisians lived under the paralysing fear of their leaders’ repressive apparatus – but they finally overcame the fear and liberated themselves.

Like Egypt and Tunisia, Zimbabwe has a technologically savvy young and educated population, yet South Africa, Britain and other countries have provided a safety valve and cushion for them. The rural populace has, mostly through coercion, continued to provide pivotal support for Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, thereby thwarting any efforts to create the critical mass needed for a people-power uprising.

Social media, particularly Facebook and Twitter, played a central role in the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. Unfortunately the internet is creaky in Zimbabwe and mobile-telephone operators’ offerings lag behind the rest of the world – while also being susceptible to political arm-twisting. Current legislation renders internet service providers and mobile operators powerless against Zanu-PF bullying.

‘Degree in violence’ As in Tunisia and Egypt, many Zimbabweans consume satellite television and watch the same cable networks, such as al-Jazeera, that played a pivotal role in the success of the North African revolutions. Yet Zimbabwe’s pliant, state-controlled broadcaster must surely enjoy wider audiences by dint of affordability more than anything else. State-controlled newspapers spew government propaganda and outright lies, further bolstering Mugabe.

Perhaps the biggest difference between Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, on the one hand, and Mugabe, on the other, is that Mugabe has an impressive record of using state violence against defenceless citizens. This is something he openly boasts about, claiming, for instance, that he has a “degree in violence”.

There is a belief about Mugabe that political power came through the barrel of the gun, and Zanu-PF was singularly responsible for this, so it will not hesitate to defend it with the gun. But Zanu-PF’s political power has seen people’s freedoms diminish, putting it in direct conflict with the people’s will.

The military, police and intelligence services in Zimbabwe long ago lost their professionalism; they see their brief as that of defending Mugabe and Zanu-PF. They have not hesitated to act against the people in quelling civil unrest or in advancing Mugabe’s political agenda during elections. There is a strong sense they would side with Mugabe were the people to revolt. It can be argued, though, that the foot soldiers may resist orders from on high to shoot, if push comes to shove.

The problem with repression is that dictators need more and not less of it to stay in power. And more repression begets anger and resentment, which require more doses of repression, which in turn create the conditions for an uprising as happened in Tunisia and Egypt. In Zimbabwe this vicious cycle can only be broken by the people taking matters into their own hands.

The North African revolutions have potent lessons for Zimbabwe. Key among these is the fact that no amount of repression can kill the people’s desire to free themselves from dictatorship. The time will come when the masses cast away their fear and claim their freedom.

Confronting the oppressors In Tunisia, the tipping point was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, an unemployed college graduate: this brought decades of pent-up feelings to the surface. There is no knowing what will cause Zimbabweans to jettison their fear and confront their oppressors. Zimbabweans fought a gallant war of liberation in the 1970s; they can do  it again.

Another powerful lesson from Tunisia and Egypt is that opposition political parties are not prerequisites for a revolution. Frustrated by weak and ineffectual opposition to their rulers, Egyptians and Tunisians stood up and filled the power vacuum. Zimbabweans find themselves in similar circumstances: the opposition has failed the people countless times.

By their very nature, opposition political parties tend to cut deals that don’t deliver a people-driven agenda. It is obvious that the current political accommodation in Zimbabwe has delivered more benefits to opposition politicians than to the people.

It is doubtful, in the circumstances, that genuine political change would come to Zimbabwe through a free and fair election. The March 2008 poll was as free and fair as any election could be, but it lacked the methodology for the transfer of power – and the situation hasn’t changed. The prospect of people power bringing change also appears  remote at the moment, but circumstances demand it.

We must avoid confusing the people with the opposition. This is the mistake Africa has made, which has resulted in a defective model of democratic transition. The opposition merely replaces a dictatorship with a newer version that still compromises the interests of the people.

Indeed, the single most important lesson from Tunisia and Egypt is that we as Zimbabweans are our own liberators. So let us stop complaining about the lack of international support. Why should the European Union, South Africa, the United States, the United Nations, the African Union or the Southern African Development Community help us when we are doing very little for ourselves? The world will only help us when we stand up and fight for our freedom and reclaim our country from Mugabe and the arrogant clique around him.

Price for freedom Regrettably, no matter how justified our struggle for freedom is, international attention and support will only come as the body count of innocent people increases on our streets. There is a huge price to be paid for freedom — history has many examples of this. The Zimbabwean masses have to do what they have got to do; the cost of doing nothing is too high.

All the ingredients for a people-driven revolution are present in Zimbabwe. These include the kleptocratic Zanu-PF elite, which thinks it is invincible and uses the bogeyman of the return of colonialism to cling to power. It includes, too, frustration with the politically clueless opposition, particularly the Movement for Democratic Change  (MDC), which is always outwitted by Zanu-PF and has failed to provide robust strategic leadership. This points to the need for the people to take charge of their own liberation.

The people are angry and hurt from years of abuse. Decades of political repression and economic mismanagement and corruption have seen the political elite get filthy rich while the majority has become destitute. Education and health infrastructure has collapsed as a result of lack of investment and the flight of skills.

The electricity, water and road infrastructures have decayed, taking a huge toll on the economy and the quality of life. The government and the struggling private sector have failed to create jobs for the hundreds of thousands of qualified youths who roam the streets.

Attempts at resolving the Zimbabwean political question through the ballot box have been frustrated by Zanu-PF’s resorting to violence and intimidation. Where these tactics have failed, Zanu-PF has simply refused to transfer power — as happened in 2008, resulting in the current political arrangement with the two MDC formations.

I have written before about the need for a “Third Way” in Zimbab we’s politics. Egypt and Tunisia tell us that perhaps the people constitute that Third Way in resolving our political impasse. Only a new beginning will suffice for Zimbabwe to regain its past glory. Sadly, both Zanu-PF and all MDC formations appear frustratingly clueless – they are caught in a conundrum in which they cannot figure out how to move the country forward.

Critically important at this juncture is that Zimbabweans debunk the childish and unhelpful attitude that equates criticism of the opposition MDC with a lack of patriotism. This is exactly the same attitude that gave us Zanu-PF. This attitude says the MDC can do no wrong, and when they do it’s not their fault because they are victims of circumstance. This is a dangerous attitude that is comfortable with mediocrity for as long as it brings change — any form of change.

Tunisia and Egypt have restored our collective faith in the power of the people. All evidence points to the fact that Zanu-PF is shaken by the North African revolutions, but is in denial mode and will respond to any nascent uprising the only way it knows best – through repression and state-led violence. Yet it is naive to believe the people will accept this as their permanent condition.

Hope deferred: narratives of Zimbabweans lives is edited by Peter Orner and Annie Holmes and is part of the Voice of Witness project. Find out more here and buy it online.

An excerpt:

ALICE

Alice was a grassroots political organizer for the Movement for Democratic Change, the opposition party in Zimbabwe. Now in her 40s, she lives undercover in a neighboring country while she waits to find out if she will be granted asylum. Here, she relives moment-by-moment her experience in 2008 of abduction and rape, sexual violence as political retribution.

My neighbor said, “I heard they are coming to get you today.”

I said, “I’m tired of running. If they want to come and get me they can come.” Less than an hour later, they came. In winter it gets dark early. It was some time after 6 pm when three cars full up with people arrived at my house. This was the 7th of June, 2008.

When I heard the sound of cars, I looked through the curtain and saw that it was bad. There was nowhere to run. They were wearing camouflage, the Zimbabwean army uniform, and they were armed with guns.

They all got out of the cars. Some jumped over my gate and some went round to my neighbors’ house where I used to go to hide. My house is a typical ghetto house – each one is attached to the neighbors’ houses. In one bedroom, they found my stepson and his wife sleeping. I’d given my stepson the spare keys to my bedroom but he could not get the door open. He was trying to insert the key but I was inside holding the other key. When I realized that they were beating him, I unlocked the door. I said, “Please don’t beat up my son. I am the problem because I am a member of MDC.”

They said, “Are you showing off with your MDC?”

I said, “No, I’m not. You are hurting someone who has done no wrong.”

They said, “Ok, open your bedroom. Why were you locked inside?”

I said, “I was afraid. I’ve never had visitors bring guns before.”

They went into my bedroom and started searching. They found twenty Morgan Tsvangirai  posters and two posters for my MP, and flyers and The Zimbabwean newspaper – I had piles of them for distribution. They searched my house and took some money that I was saving, 300 US dollars and 150 South African rands.

They told me to carry all the stuff out of the house and they took me in their open truck, a cream-colored Mitsubishi. I was sitting in the back, in the middle, and they were surrounding me, sitting on the sides. They were kicking me and hitting me with sticks and fists. Some wanted to throw me into a dam. Another car stopped and someone inside said, “Did you find her?” and they said, “Yes we did.”

They wanted me to tell them where the MDC MPs lived, the MDC youths’ houses, the councilor’s house. I refused to tell them. They said, “So you are being like Jesus who died for others? Are you going to die for those people?” I said, “No. Whoever showed you my house should have shown you all the other houses.” They said I was rude. They beat me up so badly. After that they said, “Take off your clothes.”

When I removed my clothes, just before we got to the Methodist church, they stopped the car and started taking pictures of me, naked. They carried on beating me as they were driving around. Then they stopped somewhere else in the dark and there they raped me.

There were many soldiers. I don’t know how many raped me because I passed out.

I think they threw water on me because I became conscious when we got to the police station. They said, “Get off and carry your stuff.” I got off the back of the truck but I couldn’t even walk. I fell down and they said get up and I did.

Inside, when they got behind the counter in the police station, they threw a bullet at me and said, “Kiss it” and I did and they said, “That bullet is yours.”

The recent violent clashes experienced in various parts of the country are politically motivated and youths have become victims as well as perpetrators of violence. Instead of fighting for leadership positions, youths are seen fighting each other to defend old politicians to stay in power. Political parties in Zimbabwe have realized that there is power in the grassroots and have taken advantage of the high unemployment to use youths in election campaigning and to perpetrate violence. The situation in Zimbabwe currently portrays youths as unorganized, violent and undisciplined people.

Youths in Zimbabwe are not economically empowered with enough resources to sustain themselves. Whenever there are elections youths are promised jobs and a better future but these promises are never fulfilled.

The recent uprisings in North Africa have seen youths at the forefront in campaigning for change. Unemployment has been the primary driver of their involvement in the protests.

Politicization of public places like Mbare Musika and Gulf Complex has seen youths especially from ZANU PF going around beating people and stopping them from conducting business at these public places. On the other hand ZANU PF blames the MDC T leader, Tsvangirai, for making comments that incite violence. Youth representatives from opposition parties say that violence in Zimbabwe can only be stopped if police start doing their jobs rather than being used as a mafia tool of the State.

At a meeting held in Harare hosted by the Youth Alliance for Democracy, youth representatives from political parties acknowledged that the current trend of events in Zimbabwe shows that elections and violence go hand in hand and that youths have become dangerous weapons at disposal of any political party.  Youths should unite and campaign for an environment, which they can participate in, rather than continue to be used as agents of destruction.

Eddie Cross says the calls for Egyptian style protests in Zimbabwe is naive. John Makumbe believes that Egypt style protests can and will happen in Zimbabwe. The average Zimbabwean, including myself, believes that those kind of protests in Zimbabwe are pretty much impossible, especially when the majority of our activist youth are bickering amongst themselves and are willing to sell their allegiance, to any political party for money for a meal a day.

In the meantime one of Zimbabwe’s most vocally active youth groups, The Youth Forum, reckons that before any election, a dictator must be removed.

The question of course is how?

Lessons from Egypt: A Dictator Must be removed Before an Election

We salute, hail and acknowledge the recent victory by the people of Egypt and Tunisia in deposing off their dictator-led governments. The Governments in both Tunisia and Egypt, just like our own, failed to read the mood of their populations. Consequently they left in a humiliating manner. It is therefore important for each government to know when it could no longer be defended by its own military.

The first lesson for us as Zimbabweans is: A DICTATOR MUST BE REMOVED BEFORE AN ELECTION. This idea of waiting for an election to depose of our own dictator who has proclaimed time and again that a pen (the vote) cannot win a fight with a gun is rather illogical. The mandate of executing a relevant stimuli revolution in era of political stagnation that threatens national progress unequivocally lies with the galvanized youths whether they realize this reality, sit it out in pseudo-action orientated civic organization of purely mercenary tradition, over-exploit the prerogative of prorogue or timidly water down every nascent call to peaceful unstinting organization.

Furthermore, if we remain able to accept the affliction of multi-faceted syndrome of procrastination while the loss in terms of time continues to escalate it will remain our lot to marvel the easy traditions of other galvanized youths on the continent as not ‘realistic in President Mugabe’s Zimbabwe’. Notwithstanding, eventually running away from motherland to other democracies accomplished by the marvellous revolutionary traditions of other equally-born youths in Africa as those undignified visitors called ‘political and economic exiles’.

Governments cannot rule without the military and the military cannot survive without the people whose resources are utilised to buy weapons and pay for salaries. This is why no government could exist by alienating its people. The fundamental lesson to learn here is that the beginning of the end of a regime starts with a spark which ignites the fire. Our motherland has had many sparks but it is us who have failed to ignite the fire and sustain it. Surprising, other countries in the Mid-east have ignited their fires with reports saying Libya, Bahrain and Iran are the latest countries to be hit by popular protests inspired by the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

We should disburse homage to the role that social media is now playing in many such revolts. The political unrest exploding across the Middle East is just the latest illustration that social media is no longer just for teenagers to tweet about their lives, play Farmville, and post pictures from last weekend’s party. Today, it has the potential to shake regimes and drive leaders from power. An army of bloggers, facebookers and tweeters in Egypt and Egyptians around the world were at the heart of the uprisings. All these facilities are abundantly available in Zimbabwe and can be used effectively.

Time is running out, the youths of Zimbabwe need to act now!

I arrived in South Africa today and was bemused to find that my South African driver and a fellow passenger from Ghana are more passionate about ‘the Zimbabwe issue’ than I’ve heard any Zimbabwean in Zimbabwe be.

“Mugabe must go!” proclaimed the driver.

“Only Tsvangirai can save Zimbabwe now!” chimed in the Ghanaian.

I started to give my opinion, that Tsvangirai is not the great Bantu hope and in some ways Mugabe has a point. I was shushed. What could I possibly know?

The only one of these two to have visited Zimbabwe was the driver, in the early eighties ‘when things were still good’. They both knew better. After all, they were both better informed of the goings on in my country than I. They both agreed with each other, smoothly leaving me, the only person in the car who has lived, worked and survived gore riya renzara under the Mugabe regime well out of the conversation.

We proclaim to ourselves that the Diasporans need to come home to get in on the ground floor in re-building Zimbabwe, but perhaps we’ve gotten it wrong. Increasingly I’m finding that important conversations about Zimbabwe, are taking place outside of Zimbabwe. Where does that leave those of us who live and work in Zimbabwe?

I hmm-ed where appropriate, but for the most part, I was silent in that car this morning, as are Zimbabweans when our country and its future are being discussed. Investment conferences, vigils and even talks regarding the existence of sanctions which may or may not be causing additional suffering are discussed without the people they are supposed to be helping. There is zero consultation and the only opinions that seem to matter are those that are self serving at our expense.  If Zimbabwe is to have a revolution it is that Zimbabweans should learn to speak for themselves. Mwana asingacheme anofira mumbereko.

After Mubarak’s resignation was announced on Friday, we sent out this text message to our subscribers:

Kubatana! People power brings down 30 year dictatorship in Egypt. Mubarak has resigned. Cairo is celebrating.

Below are some of the replies – which give a sense of how similar many Zimbabweans view the two countries’ situations to be:

• There were 10 dictators hanging on the wall & if 2 dictators should accidentally fall there’ll be 8 dictators hanging on the wall and if 1 dictator should accidentally fall there’ll be 7 ….And so on!
• Happy, hapy, hapy new Egypt!! Mubarak is gone. Unitd, ple cn do it. Who’s nxt? Free Africa’s cmng
• Thank God! hope the same wl happen in Zim!
• SO THAT MUST TAKE PLACE IN MOST STATES WITH SAME RULERS.THANK YOU.
  WE LIKE THAT
• Yhus good and it proves that people power is heavier than indvidual power
• Ko isiwo todii?
• Lets pray Zimbabwens can do the same.
• Where next?
• Aluta continua!
• SAME SHOULD HAPPEN MAP OUT STRATEGY
• Congratulations
• MAKOROKOTO EGYPT. THE PEOPLE  HAS GOT POWER, THE POWER IS WITHIN THE PEOPLE… secrifice and determination breed success.
• Go egypt go
• People’s power counts. The emancipation in Egypt is for us all. God is for us all.
• We are also celebrating.
• Thanks for the news.African dictators should go
• I saw it coming! A lesson 4 other leaders.
• Great!This shld b a new beginning 4 Egyptians and there shld b zero tolerance 2 US/Israeli interference in the next political dispensation
• Thanx dictorship must end in zimba
• Lets be vigilant and celebrate
• The voice of the pple is the voice of God. Long live Egypt. Long live Zim
• IN EVERY WAR THERE HAS TO BE BLOODSHED  THE INNOCENT OR THE GUILTY ! BUT THE INNOCENT WILL ALWAYS PREVAIL, BY  GOD’S GRACE. FORWARD WITH REFORMATION AND REVOLUTION. CHANGE WE WANT AND IT WILL BE.
• Strong will, courage and determination is all it takes to change the world.
• Thats something to smile about.hope the same will happen in zw
• What a relief. Surely where there is a will there is a way. In the name of the almighty GOD let us wait for the next one in line to follow suit.
• Praise God Next Is . . .
• We Zimbabweans should follow what has been done in Egypt.