Rumours are swirling, and it’s now 3 and a half days – 84 hours – since polls closed in Zimbabwe’s 29 March Harmonised Election, and the result is still very much up in the air. Only House of Assembly seats have been announced, and the current tally is Zanu PF 85, MDC (Tsvangirai) 85, MDC (Mutambara) 5, with 34 left to go (never mind the Senate and Presidential results).

As announcements by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission have been trickling out, we’ve been forwarding them to our SMS subscribers, many of whom do not have access to television or radio, or who are hit by Zimbabwe’s persistent electricity shortage.

Here are some replies from Zimbabweans across the country as we all wait and hope:

Why are the election results taking forever to be announced? We hope they don’t want to employ some dirty tricks. The people of Zimbabwe wont accept any such rubbish. Enough is enough. the people have spoken and their word should be honoured.

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I was a polling officer in Harare Province. Massive rigging can actually take place through those postal ballots. All the votes were for ZANU PF. There were no names for us to cross out in the voters roll in case the voters would have voted already. Many ballot papers could not be accounted for.

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But why the silence and the delaying tactics. Lets hope they are not going 2 steal the election again.

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Very much interested in hearing results 4 U.M.P & Rushinga who normally betray us during times like this. Tables are being turned down. The people have spoken out their minds. This is the true reflection of the Zimbabwean spirit for years.

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We’ve hung on long enough… tine mapepa edu hatishaye zvekundoita kunze uko!

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Nobody is going to manipulate the result try as they may. We will be going for a run-off between Tsvangirai and Makoni. our democracy demands that!

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It is time for MDC came out with proof of their results eg photos etc – give out facts not accusations.

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Hope is what is needed at this time they can delay but not deny the wish of the people.

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What criteria are they using kuti paite madraw. If they are busy rigging tell them that I’m prepared to die 4 this country!

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We r peace loving but we wont hesitate 2 fight 4 change this time around. We will take 2 the streets to redeem our votes! Why are the results being released piecemeal. And why is it each batch shows the parties tied. The coincidence is strange. This shows a carefully managed (read rigged) results. The CIO’s hand is evident in this.

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The people’s patience is being tested. Hope the losers are not too desperate to retain power.

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Zanu pf is doing what is called psychological management of the electorate.

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We need change 4 the future of our Zimbabwe. We need jobs & economic opportunities.

With 160 House of Assembly seats announced – and 50 to go, Zimbabwe’s election results are looking like this:

• Zanu PF – 78
• MDC (Tsvangirai) – 77
• MDC (Mutambara) – 5

This means both Zanu PF and the MDC (Tsvangirai) have more than one third of the seats in the House – enough to block one another from fast tracking any Constitutional amendment. BBC, CNN, and the New York Times all suggest increasingly confirmed reports that some kind of negotiated transition, exit package, or deal is in the works. But no matter what happens tonight or as this week unfolds, blocking one another’s 2/3 majority may prove important down the line.

At first glance, with 131 House of Assembly results announced, Zimbabwe’s election race is quite close. Zanu PF has claimed 64 seats, with 62 for the MDC (Tsvangirai) and 5 for Mutambara’s MDC.

The MDC (Tsvangirai) is doing particularly well in Harare, Bulawayo and Masvingo, while Zanu PF continues to cling to areas like Mashonaland West, East and Central, as well as in the Midlands. Results from Matabeleland and Manicaland have been slowest to come in. The MDC (Mutambara)’s 5 seats are all in Matabeleland South.

There have been some impressive gains for the MDC – for example a win in Gokwe Kabuyuni, and defeats of Zanu PF heavies like Chen Chimutengwende in Mazowe Central and Patrick Chinamasa in Makoni Central.

But there are also some worrying trends. At a House of Assembly level, the MDC and Zanu PF are almost tied in the number of constituencies won, but Zanu PF is ahead in terms of the number of votes cast. When the MDC wins, it is winning by an average of 3,000 votes. When Zanu PF wins, it wins by an average of over 4,000. So the MDC (Tsvangirai) is trailing Zanu PF in total votes cast by about 13%.

Zanu PF has also claimed some much larger wins than the MDC (Tsvangirai) has been given. In Mt Darwin West, Uzumba, Rushinga and Maramba Pfungwe, over 13,000 people reportedly voted for Zanu PF in each of these constituencies. The MDC’s largest wins are Budiriro (11,880 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)), Warren Park (9,652 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)) and Hatfield (9,575 votes for MDC (Tsvangirai). Voter turn out is around 40% – but Zanu PF won seats tend to be over this average, and MDC won seats – particularly in Bulawayo, are hovering far under. These particularly high turn out rural seats are among those the MDC will dispute, but court challenges have never been a productive way to challenge Zanu PF’s rule.

Also, the split in the MDC has handed Zanu PF some victories it might not other wise have taken, including Mutare South, Lupane West, Gokwe Kabuyuni, Vungu, Zvishavane-Ngezi and in particular Chirumanzu, where the MDC split right up the middle and back down both sides, with not one or two but three MDC candidates contesting.

There are still no guarantees. Zanu PF has more votes than any other party. But it only has 47% of the votes cast so far. If this trend continues at the presidential level, and Robert Mugabe (or any other candidate) doesn’t more than 50% of the presidential votes, a runoff will have to take place.

Zapiro’s very clear statement on what the results of a free and fair election would say.

When Zanu PF wins, it wins big – 10, 11 and even 13 thousand in some cases. . aside from exceptions like Budiriro and Warren Park. When the MDC wins, it is winning by much smaller margins, and even more worryingly, on the back of far, far lower voter turn out figures.

Zanu PF has long trumpeted its rural strongholds, and the MDC knows how difficult it is to campaign freely in rural spaces. These areas are often tightly controlled by (Zanu PF) chiefs and headmen, and there are high levels of intimidation and pressure on individual voters to toe the ruling party line. These are facts long known and commented on by the MDC and civil society actors, and are one of the key reasons why promises that Saturday’s elections would be free and fair are so laughable.

There are also more voters registered in rural areas than there are in urban centres.

Given these facts, and with a presidential election at stake, not just parliamentary seats, the MDC needs to be claiming bigger victories based on high voter turn out. They need to be seeing more voters coming out to support them in the cities than those supporting Zanu PF in the rural areas – not fewer as is now the case. Zanu PF is getting high turnout particularly in constituencies like Maramba Pfungwe and Rushinga where Zanu PF polled 14,961 and 14,264 votes respectively. Constituencies where voter turn out is far greater than the 40% average – like Maramba Pfungwe (56.91%) and Mutoko South (54.24%) – is where the MDC should focus on challenging the announced results, using their parallel vote cont.

As it stands, based on our own tally of results, Zanu PF has the largest number of votes of any party, but the combined other contesters outstrip Zanu PF.

These results have been recorded by hand off the ZEC announcements, and then transposed onto a spreadsheet, so some errors may have been made along the way, but it looks something like this:

• Total votes cast: 1,184,723

• Zanu PF: 555,189
• MDC (Tsvangirai): 492,346
• MDC (Mutambara): 94,560
• Combined Independents/Other parties: 42,628

So Zanu PF is ahead. But if you add up all non-Zanu PF votes, they don’t look quite so comfortably positioned:

• Zanu PF: 555,189 (46.9% of votes cast)
• Total non-Zanu PF votes: 629,534 (53.1%)

In other words, at least at a House of Assembly level, with 109 of 209 constituencies reported (one constituency was uncontested, and was declared for Zanu PF without an election), Zanu PF has more votes than any party, but not an absolute majority of votes cast.

If this trend continues for the balance of the seats, and extends to the Presidential election, we could very well be looking at a run off, if not an opposition election victory in the first round.

It’s 47 hours after polling closed in Zimbabwe’s 29 March Harmonised Election, and the phrase on everybody’s lips is: Where are the results?

Of course, the longer it takes them to announce, the more suspicious we’re all getting. But whilst it’s 47 hours of suspense, it’s also 47 hours which the MDC has had to compile its own independent tally of results. The MDC has declared victory, but where is its substantiation of this claim? Election results have been posted outside polling stations and Constituency counting centres around the country, so it’s possible to add them up for yourself, if you have the capacity to track them all down, and the patience to add them all up. This is what, it would seem, the Independent Results Centre has been doing. But scratch the surface of their website, and there is a national percentage tally, but no constituency level results to compare with the 39 constituencies for which results have been announced.

In Harare at least, this would be entirely possible – reveal the figures for Harare’s polling stations. One Kubatana subscriber suggested that maybe the MDC was reluctant to pre-empt the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s results, because they government has been very clear that it would view such an act as verging on coup potential.

But at the very least, the MDC should be comparing the ZEC’s announcements with what it has. Not to sound trite about what is, clearly, a massive undertaking. But the ZEC announced the first 6 results at 7 this morning – 11 hours ago. They announced another 12 at noon – 6 hours ago. Where is the MDC’s confirmation – or disputing – of these initial results? Even if their figures tally exactly with ZEC’s the MDC should announce this – doing so would lend credibility down the track if they do want to dispute other constituencies. Surely it’s not illegal to share your take on what the ZEC has announced?

Moreover, if we’re serious about freeing Zimbabwe from dictatorship, some defiance of unjust – or specious – laws is in order? But the Elections Results link on the MDC website still reads “coming soon.”

In some ways, the MDC could use the ZEC’s delay to their advantage – and contest results in areas where they’ve tallied the votes independently. But if they don’t take advantage of this window, it will get slammed shut on their fingers. In a country where mass media is state controlled, how is the MDC letting Zimbabweans know what it makes of ZEC’s results – and what it plans on doing about it?