From the International Crisis Group:

A return to protracted political crisis, and possibly extensive violence, is likely as Zimbabwe holds elections on 31 July. Conditions for a free and fair vote do not exist.

In its latest briefing, Zimbabwe’s Elections: Mugabe’s Last Stand, the International Crisis Group examines Wednesday’s presidential, parliamentary and local elections. With the voters roll in shambles, security forces unreformed, the media grossly imbalanced, the electoral commission ill-prepared and allegations of rigging pervasive, it is likely they will be so deeply flawed, or the results so sharply contested, that they will usher in an exacerbated crisis.

The briefing’s major findings and recommendations are:

President Robert Mugabe, at 89 years old and with 33 years at the helm, seeks to ensure his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) regains full control of government before embarking on a fraught succession process. Out-manoeuvring both the two rival Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) formations and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), ZANU-PF hardliners, supported by the president, secured a Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed the premature election date, shutting down any prospects of necessary reform

MDC formations favoured a later date but had to participate, as a boycott would have been counter-productive. The opposition parties feel they must demonstrate they retain popular support.

ZANU-PF has a strong resource advantage in the campaign. The two MDC formations have struggled to raise money but are relatively well organised. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T believes it can win the presidency but fears the electoral commission is being undermined from within and cannot deliver a free and credible electoral process.

SADC and the African Union (AU), the only outside entities with sufficient standing, self-interest and on-ground presence to have a chance of managing a potentially explosive situation, face severe credibility tests. They must avoid a narrow, technical approach. If the vote is deeply flawed, they should declare it illegitimate and press for a re-run after several months of careful preparation, or, if that is not possible, facilitate negotiation of a compromise acceptable to the major parties. Strong diplomacy will be needed to forestall violence if the presidential contest moves to a run-off in conditions like 2008, or, if President Mugabe loses at any stage, to ensure a smooth transition.

“Five years on from the violence and chaos that the flawed 2008 elections led to, Zimbabwe’s main political actors each retain substantial national support and a claim to exercise primary responsibility for the nation’s future”, says Trevor Maisiri, Crisis Group’s Southern Africa Senior Analyst. “However, they have made little if any genuine progress toward the mutual trust, or at least tolerance, that might enable them to agree on a solution to their political deadlock”.

“Major political institutions, like the European Union, that have indicated they will follow an African lead in these elections will have to make difficult choices in August”, says Piers Pigou, Southern Africa Project Director. “No policy would be free of costs, but a renewed effort to uphold basic standards would stand the best chance eventually to cure Zimbabwe’s dangerous fevers”.

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Source: International Crisis Group

Details from a just held MDC Press briefing:

1. General high turnout nationally. Long queues in Harare and other provinces. In Harare an average of 400 people had voted at each polling station by 10am.

2. Disturbing events in four Mashonaland Central constituencies as well as in Mashonaland East province. Muzarabani South, North, Mt Darwin North, Guruve North. Uzumba, Maramba-Pfungwe, Mutoko East and North, known MDC supporters including teachers, have been told to plead illiteracy and being ‘assisted’ by Zanu PF. In Maramba Pfungwe, this is happening at Nyangande, Dinde, Datseka polling stations, our people are being “assisted.” In Muzarabani North, this is happening at Muringazuva, Chadereka. In Muzarabani South, this is happening at Mutemakungu, Hoya, Chiweshe primary school and Ucheche polling stations. In Hatfield, we have unearthed massive vote rigging in which 6000 people have been imported district to vote using same registration slips. Some of have been arrested and are at Hatfield police station where the MDC candidate Dr. Tapiwa Mashakada is at.

3. At Bindura primary school known police officers who were part of the special voting are in the queue again today to vote.

4. In Mt Darwin North, this is happening at all polling stations.

5. In Chegutu East, a village head is intimidating by recording names of all villagers as they turn up at Rutara polling station.

6. In Chitungwiza South, Zanu PF supporters telling residents to memorise the last three digits of the serial numbers on their ballots and hand them over after voting.

7. Unknown polling stations: Kanyaya polling station in Muzarabani North was not there.

8. In Guruve North, Masonaland Central, all suspected MDC members are being assisted to vote.

9. Switching of candidates’ faces on parliamentary election ballots in Nyanga.

10. Zvishavane-Ngezi, 300 ballots found in the box with different serial numbers from the ballots issues there. This happened at Mondogori and Mimosa polling stations.

11. Former army officers claim they have received messages to report to KGVI tomorrow, without fail. The message reportedly came from Phillip Valerio Sibanda.

12. We are encouraged by the high turn out. We remain confident that in spite of all these challenges, the people of Zimbabwe will deliver change and real transformation.

Get active!

If you have had political posters pasted on your wall or gate, and if you don’t want them there, stand up to the abuse of power and remove them. It is your right to do so. Don’t be intimidated.

You can also email the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) on: inquiry [at] zec [dot] gov [dot] zw and file a report.

You add, we multiply!

That Mugabe is a bully is now a historical fact, and the he brooks no criticism or censure from fellow African presidents is a fact that has made a spoof out of Nepad’s much vaunted African/Peer Review Mechanism.

And it’s even worse when African diplomats and presidents alike are very much awake to the fact that Mugabe can indeed tell them off despite all efforts to knock sense into his head.

This became apparent with the arrival of Nkosazana Zuma-Dlamini into the country where she said there was no guarantee that African Union Mission chairperson Olusegun Obasanjo was going to be allowed into Zimbabwe, “saying it depends on whether Government will allow him.”

“I think he will come. If he is allowed he will come. They allowed me to come, that is all I’m saying.”

Why go ahead with the goddamn charade then when it is already known that even African observers are not viewed too kindly, not by government but, by Zanu PF?

David Coltart has complained about ZEC assuming the role of the Constitutional Court, something that sets it own precedence as we approach what many have written off as a poll that will have a disputed outcome – again.

Coltart was commenting on the special vote where ZEC says those who failed to vote will be allowed to vote on the 31st despite the Electoral Act saying those who applied for the special vote cannot vote if they missed that first opportunity.

The problem with these latest developments is that as long as there are disagreements on what course to follow, this only becomes yet another pointer of ZEC’s own poor preparedness for the poll, something which has been the major talking point ever since that Jealousy Mawarire fellow sprang from the wilderness like a locust eating and honey sucking savior.

The concerns Coltart raises are yet another example of how legal processes have merely become symbolic in this country where the rule of law has been an area of bitter contestation because one political party simply chooses to ignore what does not favour it.

In a functioning democracy, there is no doubt that disgruntled political parties would take their case to the courts, but here they know too damn well that they will be pissing in the wind. So what do they do? They go ahead and participate under protest! What a big joke.

Zimbabwe desperately needs all sorts of reforms, from not-so-bright judges, to not-so-bright military men to even death-wishing kombi drivers!

And the fact that the results of the special vote are still to be announced is telling enough and portends more chaos for the 31 July vote.

A curious response was given by ZEC spokesperson Shupikai Mashereni on being asked about the veracity of the special voter numbers given by Patrick Chinamasa who is “however, not the authority mandated to make such official announcements,” Newsday helpfully pointed out.

Said Mashereni: “You think the minister could have lied about those numbers? He is a minister.”

Well?

Politicians are like salesmen. Once the merchandise is sold and the money’s in the bag, the after sales service is a pain in the back. Elections are the only time you hear a politician plead and swear with the dead ancestors for support. The country is blooming with rainbow colors of election giveaways and something to put on at night to beat the winter chills, and to cover your head when you endure long hours of rhetoric in the blistering sun.

Giveaways come in various forms. Recently I was reading an article in the press about another election freebie announced by the Minister of Local Government. The local authorities are going to write off water debt. Though it could be a welcome gesture, the timing to write off water bills dating back to 2009 raises eyebrows as to whether this is another election gimmick by the revolutionary party. People now know the repercussions with comes with freebies of elections as history has shown that after being voted into power the same Minister will just recommend a hike in utility bills making the situation worse than before. If the Minister is really sincere about the plight of the Zimbabwean masses why didn’t he advise local authorities to relieve residents of the burden of paying for services long ago, when residents were drinking sewage and going for months with dry taps. Water is a human right but in the past five years it has become a luxury to some citizens of this beloved nation. So maybe these free for all gimmicks should not be limited to water only but also to the country’s sole provider of energy – Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority – which has been overcharging and switching off residents for bills inherited during the Zim dollar era.