If media reports are to be believed social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook are being credited with driving the recent overthrow of North African dictators. In light of this, speculation is rife about staging a similar event in Zimbabwe.

I recently received an email from an individual or group who are trying to organise a similar uprising. To my understanding all communication about this meeting has been via the Internet. I hope that while they have taken notes from the afore-mentioned revolutions, they are aware that it is not possible to replicate them here.

Traditional media such as print, radio and television are strictly controlled by the government for a reason. They have a reach and influence over the vast majority of Zimbabweans that is not yet paralleled by any emerging new media. Internet penetration is estimated at a rate of 24% of adults living in urban centres. Popular revolts are not powered by the comfortable urban middle classes, who in Zimbabwe’s case make up the majority of those who have regular access to the Internet, they are powered by the young and idealistic.

While Zimbabwe’s youth are ripe for driving a revolution, the recent demonstrations and violence against foreign business owners in support of Indigenisation suggest that they are a political tool, rather than a tool for change. They have unwavering and what is more dangerous unquestioning support for the political parties they are aligned to.  Zimbabwe has yet to see a youth wing or movement that is more powerful or has greater influence than those established by political parties.

Revolutions have no blueprints, and as Trevor Ncube rightly states in his reflections on recent events “Zimbabwe is neither Tunisia nor Egypt”.

Hope deferred: narratives of Zimbabweans lives is edited by Peter Orner and Annie Holmes and is part of the Voice of Witness project. Find out more here and buy it online.

An excerpt:

ALICE

Alice was a grassroots political organizer for the Movement for Democratic Change, the opposition party in Zimbabwe. Now in her 40s, she lives undercover in a neighboring country while she waits to find out if she will be granted asylum. Here, she relives moment-by-moment her experience in 2008 of abduction and rape, sexual violence as political retribution.

My neighbor said, “I heard they are coming to get you today.”

I said, “I’m tired of running. If they want to come and get me they can come.” Less than an hour later, they came. In winter it gets dark early. It was some time after 6 pm when three cars full up with people arrived at my house. This was the 7th of June, 2008.

When I heard the sound of cars, I looked through the curtain and saw that it was bad. There was nowhere to run. They were wearing camouflage, the Zimbabwean army uniform, and they were armed with guns.

They all got out of the cars. Some jumped over my gate and some went round to my neighbors’ house where I used to go to hide. My house is a typical ghetto house – each one is attached to the neighbors’ houses. In one bedroom, they found my stepson and his wife sleeping. I’d given my stepson the spare keys to my bedroom but he could not get the door open. He was trying to insert the key but I was inside holding the other key. When I realized that they were beating him, I unlocked the door. I said, “Please don’t beat up my son. I am the problem because I am a member of MDC.”

They said, “Are you showing off with your MDC?”

I said, “No, I’m not. You are hurting someone who has done no wrong.”

They said, “Ok, open your bedroom. Why were you locked inside?”

I said, “I was afraid. I’ve never had visitors bring guns before.”

They went into my bedroom and started searching. They found twenty Morgan Tsvangirai  posters and two posters for my MP, and flyers and The Zimbabwean newspaper – I had piles of them for distribution. They searched my house and took some money that I was saving, 300 US dollars and 150 South African rands.

They told me to carry all the stuff out of the house and they took me in their open truck, a cream-colored Mitsubishi. I was sitting in the back, in the middle, and they were surrounding me, sitting on the sides. They were kicking me and hitting me with sticks and fists. Some wanted to throw me into a dam. Another car stopped and someone inside said, “Did you find her?” and they said, “Yes we did.”

They wanted me to tell them where the MDC MPs lived, the MDC youths’ houses, the councilor’s house. I refused to tell them. They said, “So you are being like Jesus who died for others? Are you going to die for those people?” I said, “No. Whoever showed you my house should have shown you all the other houses.” They said I was rude. They beat me up so badly. After that they said, “Take off your clothes.”

When I removed my clothes, just before we got to the Methodist church, they stopped the car and started taking pictures of me, naked. They carried on beating me as they were driving around. Then they stopped somewhere else in the dark and there they raped me.

There were many soldiers. I don’t know how many raped me because I passed out.

I think they threw water on me because I became conscious when we got to the police station. They said, “Get off and carry your stuff.” I got off the back of the truck but I couldn’t even walk. I fell down and they said get up and I did.

Inside, when they got behind the counter in the police station, they threw a bullet at me and said, “Kiss it” and I did and they said, “That bullet is yours.”

From Bulawayo Agenda:

Villagers in the remote area of Madlambuzi in Plumtree are being forced by their village heads to sign the anti sanctions petition. The petition is a ZANU PF project headed by the self proclaimed war veterans leader, Jabulani Sibanda. The party is targeting more than one million signatures on the petition, which shall be presented to the three principals in the inclusive government. The unsuspecting villagers are allegedly told to sign without questioning the contents of the petition.  Anti-sanction fliers are also being distributed by ZimPapers. Sunday Newspaper readers were surprised on Sunday morning to find anti-sanction fliers inside the newspaper, a clear indication that Zanu PF is not joking about the removal of sanctions.

Sometimes I figure Zanu PF in its parochial propaganda and smear campaign gives Morgan Tsvangirai too much deist powers. I don’t think Zimbabweans will take to the streets simply because “Tsvangirai told them to.” If any revolution  is to be televised here, it will follow the standard set in the troubled North: the people themselves will take charge, not some politician being credited with inspiring mass protests as if the people were unthinking zombies. We already know what happened here before about that attempt at “organised” street marches so we won’t bother dwell on  the thesis of street any percieved protests being ostensibly led by someone who himself is a player in the power games. So if Zanu PF believe Tsvangirai will lead “peace loving people” into orgies of anarchy, well Zimbabweans have every right to feel insulted. This century’s revolutionaries certainly do not need a figure head, just the politics of the belly – among other body parts -  are enough to push grannies and teenagers to the streets. Tsvangirai the fall guy. Go figure.

John Makumbe writing on ZimDiaspora believes that MDC-T is “sleeping on the job”. Two of John’s suggestions are interesting to me:

Being in the corridors of state power seems to have made the MDC-T lose its focus as a dynamic political party.

and

I am urging the progressive leaders of the ruling MDC-T party is to show some political muscle by organizing well-controlled and managed street demonstrations and other effective responses to the actions of the Zanu (PF) hoodlums. Failure to do that in a timely fashion can easily be interpreted as cowardice.

But the failure of real change taking root in Zimbabwe rests with Zanu PF, MDC and the people of Zimbabwe. The MDC won’t organise street protests or boycotts or stayaways because they won’t get anyone to participate. I wonder if 2011 will be the year in which the description of Zimbabweans being cowards is shot down?

Here’s the full article:

Reports of the Zanu (PF) militia running amok and disrupting normal council business in various parts of Harare are a clear indication that the ruling party, the MDC, is sleeping on the job. We all know that Zanu (PF) is desperate to return from the political wilderness into Harare and win some of its constituencies again.

We also know that most of the hoodlums causing havoc in the name of Zanu (PF) are not Hararians, but rural bumpkins who are being bussed in from Bindura, Chinhoi, Banket and Karoi. Zanu (PF) no longer has any significant numbers of youths in Harare.

They all have defected to the ever-popular MDC-T. With the ailing Mugabe calling for elections this year, the dwindling supporters of the dying political party think that they can re-group, intimidate the Harare residents and make them vote for the former liberation party once again.

Fortunately, this is not going to happen; indeed, the hooliganism that they are displaying is only going to alienate more people from the beleaguered party.

But the point of this contribution is that being in the corridors of state power seems to have made the MDC-T lose its focus as a dynamic political party. Somehow the party thinks that it has arrived. The truth of the matter is that, guys, you are not there yet. The struggle must continue on all fronts until final victory and the realization of real change.

It is surprising that whereas Zanu (PF) youths are being organized to march and demonstrate against Harare City Council and MDC-T Members of Parliament (MPs), those of the Prime Minister’s party are conspicuous by their absence, silence and inactivity. I personally believe that if MDC-T youths were active in the streets and the suburbs and townships, Zanu (PF) hoodlums would not have the courage to run amok disturbing normal business.

It is high time that these lawless hired hands were made to know that their reeling party lost the political support of the people of all urban centres years ago. Confrontation is an effective weapon against riotous puppies of dictatorship.

The people of Mbare are experiencing serious levels of harassment from these misguided Zanu (PF) militia on a daily basis. Flea market vendors are being intimidated and robbed of their wares practically every day. When the victims of these demonic acts report these incidences to the Zanu Repressive Police (ZRP) they are told to bring to the police station the people who will have harassed them.

Senior officials of the MDC-T behave as if all is well, even though these reports are being made to them regularly. Zanu (PF) must not be allowed to have its way with the lives of innocent people without being made to pay the price of such folly. I am not suggesting that MDC-T supporters and youths
adopt violence as a response to the wild actions of the Zanu (PF) hooligans.

Far from it.

All I am urging the progressive leaders of the ruling MDC-T party is to show some political muscle by organizing well-controlled and managed street demonstrations and other effective responses to the actions of the Zanu (PF) hoodlums. Failure to do that in a timely fashion can easily be interpreted
as cowardice.

One of the reasons why Mugabe is calling for elections in 2011 is that he sees the actions of these hired rogues as evidence that Zanu (PF) now has the upper hand in terms of political support in Zimbabwe’s urban areas. A spate of MDC-T street demonstrations throughout the country will quickly dispel these ill-advised notions and allow the country to go for elections when the time and conditions are right.

The trouble with regime change as sold to us by civil society and political parties, is that it is not as simple as it is made out to be. Changing one government for another in the hope of ushering in democracy is not the answer. Democracy itself should not be reduced to a periodic election, yet this is what ordinary people are told. Elections are not a salve that will automatically repair failing or failed states. Zimbabwe has held regular elections for the past thirty years, but that does not make us a democratic state. Neither will replacing ZANU PF with MDC.

In his opinion piece for the New York Times Chinua Achebe writes:

First we have to nurture and strengthen our democratic institutions – and strive for the freest and fairest elections possible. That will place the true candidates of the people in office. Within the fabric of a democracy, a free press can thrive and a strong justice system can flourish. The checks and balances…and the laws needed to curb corruption will then naturally find a footing. And there has to be the development of a new patriotic consciousness.