From Brian Raftopoulos:

Is Zimbabwe heading towards another disputed election?
29 July 2013

In September 2008 the three major political parties in Zimbabwe entered an inclusive government following a contested election in June that year. The Global Political Agreement (GPA), as it was called, was facilitated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the facilitation was led by the South African government.

After nearly five years under a very problematic and intensely contested inclusive arrangement, the people of Zimbabwe face another election on the 31st July in a battle for the presidency, parliament and council representatives. The setting of the election date was announced unilaterally by President Mugabe, following a decision by the constitutional court clearly directed by Mugabe’s party. This was contrary to the terms of the GPA which set out that this decision would be made by consensus of the three political parties, Zanu PF, MDC-T and the smaller MDC formation. Mugabe’s failure to abide by the terms of the GPA on this issue represented the latest in a long list of infringements by his party on the terms of the agreement.

Many of the key reforms envisaged under the GPA, such as media reform, substantive changes in the electoral laws and security sector realignment were blocked by Mugabe’s party in the last five years. The latter issue was particularly important given the fact that the security establishment effectively blocked the MDCs from translating their electoral victory into state power in 2008. As a result, the forthcoming election is taking place under conditions which once again bode ill for the conduct of a free and fair plebiscite. The combination of a shortened voter registration period and a voter’s roll which, according to recent reports contains serious irregularities, point to further problems around the electoral process. The chaos surrounding the recently conducted special vote for the security forces provided yet another indication of the lack of readiness of the national electoral body for the July election.

The current state of unreadiness for the election has also been a cause of continuous concern for SADC. Since 2011 a series of SADC summits has pushed the GPA partners to implement all the political reforms set out in the GPA. At its June summit in Maputo the SADC facilitator on Zimbabwe, South African President Zuma, once again stressed the need for all matters agreed on under the GPA to be implemented speedily in order to ensure adequate preparations for a level playing field for the forthcoming elections.

Among the range of issues raised by Zuma in his report was the key point that security sector realignment could not be postponed any longer. The summit also called on the Zimbabwe parties to seek an extension of the election date from the Zimbabwe constitutional court, in order to ensure greater readiness for the election. Once again Zanu PF ensured the constitutional court decision endorsed the 31 July election date. In response to the recent disorganised special vote process, SADC stated that it wished its advice had been heeded on the need for a delay. There have clearly been tensions between Mugabe and his SADC colleagues over the problems of implementing the GPA. Mugabe’s recent attacks on one of the SADC facilitatiors, Lindiwe Zulu, over her alleged criticisms of the electoral process, point to some longer terms problems that Mugabe’s party have had with Zuma’s arbitration.

Additionally the growing convergence between SADC and the EU since the beginning of 2013 over the conditions for a free and fair election, have triggered concerns in Zanu PF. For much of the 2000′s including the period of the inclusive government, Mugabe has skillfully used the division between SADC and the West over the sanctions imposed by the latter in the early 2000′s on the Mugabe regime, to maintain the support of the region. The gradual movement away from the sanctions position by the EU, from 2012, and the clear movement of the EU towards an EU-Zimbabwe re-engagement dependent on the status of the upcoming election have closed the ground between the EU and SADC.

The pressure is therefore on the regional body to carry out the mandate that it set itself when the facilitation began in 2007. In that year the SADC mediation set out to establish conditions for a generally acceptable election in Zimbabwe and to “ensure that everybody concerned accepts that the results of the elections as truly representative of the will of the people.” The facilitator at that time, the then South African President Thabo Mbeki, was keen to keep the West at bay and to push for an African solution to an African problem. That task remains to be completed in Zimbabwe, and the stakes in the forthcoming elections are high not only for Zimbabweans, but also for the credibility of SADC.

Being in the capital city, the seat of government, does provide one with an opportunity to listen in on political conversations at a very close level, and with what I have seen, the mood could well be different from my past experiences elsewhere not only with elections but the general political atmosphere and conversations centred around politics.

It is true that while political activism in places such as Bulawayo has been very much animated by the rise of Welshman Ncube, people one meets have not been the garrulous type eager to strike political conversation with total strangers, especially in pubs!

In the country’s south-western parts, the sentiment has long been, “you never know who might be listening,” and some commentators have actually opined that this has a historical context dating back to the early 1980s Gukurahundi where government spooks infiltrated neighbourhoods to listen in on conversations that would mention Gayigusu, Thambolenyoka, Gwesela and other notorious “dissidents” of the time.

Yet in the past weeks, I have interacted with all sorts of characters in Harare who seem very emboldened by the prospect of a new beginning for Zimbabwe such that “speaking their mind” is apparently only being realised today as their democratic right.

I listened to young men the other day speak about the future of the country, that it was time the country moved on from the chaos of the past 13 or more years.

An off-duty soldier who sat among us said it wasn’t his style to speak politics as he already knew how he would vote, and this was the same guy who every weekend sits with the lads who complain about virtually everything, it is tempting to say it would be strange if he held views contrary to those of his circle of friends.

We always accepted that people speak in hushed tones when discussing politics in public places, yet one does get the sense that while many anticipate these public spaces to be more open after tomorrow’s election with the much-expected coming in of a new government, the opposite can also be true: the repression could be upped with the victory of the same party many are predicting its demise. It’s a strange scenario.

I spoke with a young man whom I asked if he was going to vote and he replied in the negative, I asked him why, and he said “I’m just not into politics.”

Yet I see him all the time sitting around the same circles with the soldier who listens to his buddies cursing the founding fathers!

Still I replied that voting is not about liking or hating politics. His reply? “I already know the party I support, I support the old man’s party,” he said, further explaining as if to make sense not to me but to himself: both my parents are war veterans! How’s that!

In fact that should have been reason enough for him to go and register and vote for his parents’ party! Wouldn’t that make sense?

But then like many things here, everything ain’t what it seems.

Could be he knew if he registered, he would ultimately vote against his parents’ party, and because some people look for religious sensibilities everywhere, that would betray one of the greatest Commandments humankind has ever lived by: “Honour your mother and father so that your days may be long!” And hasn’t Mugabe said in the past that young people are rebelling against their parents by voting for the MDC-T?

Yet I did get a sense that in Harare, being the MDC-T backyard as it were, some folks have had no heebie- jeebies actually betraying their political loyalty despite all talk about your vote being your secret!

Well it is just a few hours before Zimbabweans go and vote but would this be another protest vote to expose the ridiculousness and the insanity in the manner in which the electoral process has been conducted so far? Political parties contesting in this year’s election are yet to receive the final version of the voters’ roll. The delay in issuing a voters’ roll to political parties is a reminder of the 2008 scenario when the nation had to anxiously wait for more than six weeks to get final results. Responding to questions raised by Violet Gonda of 1st TV on why as a party the MDC is participating in an election full of irregularities Welshman Ncube highlighted that the only strategy available is to fight ZANU-PF from every arena of the struggle. This raises questions on whether this fight is about ZANU-PF or the whole system. But if the strategy of not walking away from a fight on the reasons that it’s an unfair fight works for MDC how then was it difficult for Professor Ncube to share his views with Zimbabwe on comments made by AU Chairperson on electoral process being satisfactory. To rubbish the question and say he is not an analyst contradicts with the irregularities MDC leader he been raising throughout the interview. As much as Welshman Ncube insists on not to being compared with Tsvangirai in condemning the AU chairperson’s statement doesn’t change the fact that he is still participating in the same election to protest the irregularities.

The excitement of tomorrow’s poll is just too palpable, with one chap saying rather loudly this morning that “we are getting rid of this party that has ruled for 33 years. 33 years vakomana. Now we can say whatever we want and not this nonsense where we have been afraid to speak our minds because there is a Zanu PF supporter close by!”

Oh boy, I said to myself.

And he did have a point, and for anyone to be able to say that in public, is enough to tell us a lot about the credibility of opinion polls peddled by state media that predict a Zanu PF landslide.

Of course sentiment expressed by folks in a public lift cannot stand the rigours of scientific scrutiny as representative of wider public opinion, yet it has become so current in the past few days with one chap saying today that he has stopped listening to people who trash Mugabe because some of them did not even register to vote.

It is thus interesting that because ZEC frustrated millions of people, denying them their democratic right to vote, how then does this reflect on the reliability of the public opinion surveys about people claiming they support Mugabe when in fact many failed to register?

One cannot dismiss the possibility that even Zanu PF supporters failed to register despite the widely accepted view that ZEC was particularly bent on disenfranchising MDC-T supporters. Talk about Zanu PF being hoisted on its own petard. It might as well have frustrated its own supporters from voting!

Talk about poetic justice, but then it’s going to be an intense next few hours as “excitable” voters already begin their celebration of Zanu PF’s exit, because like the other fellow commented: “I’m 33 years old and the only leader I have known is Mugabe, is that normal?”

Yet another chipped in with his own wisdom, insisting that “dai ndiri ini ndinopinda panyanga, no MP would live in Borrowdale, they would live in their constituencies and with potholes and cholera like the rest of us!”

With sentiments like these, if Mugabe steals the election, he could unwittingly be inviting street protests, yet the same holds true about a Tsvangirai victory as ZANU PF’s Jabulani Sibanda has already made it know they will “go back to the bush” if the MDC-T wins.

Some Afro-pessimists have previously opined that African elections only lead to political instability, and Zanu PF’s perpetual war mode certainly epitomizes that dystopia, so where does that leave us?

We will soon know.

From the crew at Kalabash:

Now there’s not much rallying left to do so get your gear on and go see what the fuss is about. Make sure you don’t dress too quickly. This is important. If you happen to throw on your Manchester United home kit and wind up at a ZANU rally it may be taken the wrong way and you’ll look like a bull’s eye in a sea of yellow and green. Back slowly out of the arena and go back to your wardrobe. This is a harmless mistake but just so you don’t make it again here’s what not to take to a rally for either of the 2 main parties:

What not to take to a ZANU rally
-Blood-red sneakers or pumps for the ladies
-Red soccer kits: Arsenal, Manchester United, rather go for the Chicken Inn kit, that’s a winner
-You just got your new red G-Shock watch, leave it at home
-Caps: don’t worry you’ll get one there
-On the flipside, if you’re buying a take-away then Chicken Inn packaging might appear to be aligned with the rival party, rather grab a neutral sadza in a Styrofoam container
-Your drink depends on your taste of course but Spa-Letta’s berry flavoured pop might be pushing the boundaries. Grit your teeth and have a sickly sweet but highly patriotic Pine Nut

What not to take to an MDC rally
-Yes you may be a Zimbabwe football fan but sadly today is not about your country, it’s about your party so hang it back in the cupboard
-Housewives/husbands must ensure that they remove their Marigold gloves before leaving the house, this is an easy mistake that would make you look highly suspect
-Even if those flashy yellow earrings really bring out your eyes today don’t risk it, rather hide them behind bright red shades
-Now, as lunchtime approaches and you want an energy boost stay away from those uplifting banana bunches, you’ll look like a party rival with boxing gloves, rather go for an egg and discretely consume the yellow centre
-Finally your drink, luckily for you freezits should be available and at least the indecision you face between red and green doesn’t come into play. Choose red, it’s the right thing to do.

Did you know that since 15 July, ZTV’s given Zanu PF 90 minutes (favourable) coverage, and MDC-T 10 minutes (mostly negative).
- Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe