Revolution is not something fixed in ideology, nor is it something fashioned to a particular decade. It is a perpetual process embedded in the human spirit.
- Abbie Hoffman

On Saturday evening I got a text message saying that a member of our Kubatana team had been arrested and was being detained at Harare Central Police Station. His crime? Attending a public meeting convened by the International Socialist Organisation (ISO). ISO felt it useful to bring together members of the public and colleagues in civil society to discuss the events in Egypt.

A paranoid regime responds just like the Mugabe one did on Saturday. It closed the meeting down. Arrested everybody. And held them until Monday morning without allowing them any legal representation.

Stupid bully boys.

The events in Egypt have been broadcast by all major media houses and many Zimbabweans have gotten to hear and see the effects of people power – it brought Mubarak down. And if all the moons and the stars alike align, it will bring Mugabe down too. The more you suppress dissent and the more you rule with an iron fist, the more the people will Hate you. Its not rocket science, its pure fact.

My mother always liked to use the phrase: its like farting against thunder.

That’s exactly what Mugabe and his authoritarian regime are doing in Zimbabwe. They can puff and puff all they like, but eventually they’ll suffocate themselves through suppressing the will of the people.

As we said in our latest Kubatana newsletter:

Sit at the feet of the master long enough, and they’ll start to smell.
~ John Sauget

And many of us are enough of the stench.

If media reports are to be believed social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook are being credited with driving the recent overthrow of North African dictators. In light of this, speculation is rife about staging a similar event in Zimbabwe.

I recently received an email from an individual or group who are trying to organise a similar uprising. To my understanding all communication about this meeting has been via the Internet. I hope that while they have taken notes from the afore-mentioned revolutions, they are aware that it is not possible to replicate them here.

Traditional media such as print, radio and television are strictly controlled by the government for a reason. They have a reach and influence over the vast majority of Zimbabweans that is not yet paralleled by any emerging new media. Internet penetration is estimated at a rate of 24% of adults living in urban centres. Popular revolts are not powered by the comfortable urban middle classes, who in Zimbabwe’s case make up the majority of those who have regular access to the Internet, they are powered by the young and idealistic.

While Zimbabwe’s youth are ripe for driving a revolution, the recent demonstrations and violence against foreign business owners in support of Indigenisation suggest that they are a political tool, rather than a tool for change. They have unwavering and what is more dangerous unquestioning support for the political parties they are aligned to.  Zimbabwe has yet to see a youth wing or movement that is more powerful or has greater influence than those established by political parties.

Revolutions have no blueprints, and as Trevor Ncube rightly states in his reflections on recent events “Zimbabwe is neither Tunisia nor Egypt”.

It is a busy  place, Cape Town
filled with new housing and more cars and more roads
filled with family and friends and generosity and warmth  and shared meals and old memories
shared holidays and celebrations and places we have been
and where to go and what to see and what to buy and where to live
Gleaming shops filled with new things that I didn’t know I needed
things that make life better?
and I buy 3 pairs of baggie trousers,
(and even though  Pat tells me it looks as if I have dirtied my nappy from behind,
I am, nevertheless, pleased at this new casual comfort)

Most days I watched the early morning sea
sitting on the rocks below towering mountains
where the elements converge
in rushing winds
and silent mists
and sudden heat from unfiltered sun in deep blue skies

ancient granite rocks overlaid with ancient  sea beds
overhang the ocean
and here – in this unlikely, unwelcoming place
blown by furious flattening winds
scorched by burning afternoon sun
watered by far flung spray
8 different kinds of flowering plants  have made their home
a tenuous holding

fibrous roots into cracks of crystallized infertile rock

- and a line of minute black ants
march in earnest, focused direction
across the granite wall behind me

life is everywhere – ready to answer the challenge
in their still deep silence the old spirits of the mountains
are slowly shifting
as a frill of encrusting  houses and mansions and apartments
scramble up its slopes
fill valleys that were once the passage of wind-blown sand,
and hundreds of thousands of temporary shacks
grow and spread
out there, on the sand dunes
and on the edge of wetlands and slopes
- housing for the homeless

The old oaks planted by long gone settlers
begin to grow diseased and old

The sea begins to bite into the coastal railway line
and sand blows up the streets covering the edges

These rocks, and mountains and beaches have moved with the slow pace of time
over millions of years
a small piece of Africa jutting out towards the south pole
covered in feinbos
a community of plants found nowhere else in the world

and at the time we begin to realise how precarious is  this land
and finally recognize the call to hold this place sacred
- small places on the tops of mountains and the edge of unreachable coasts

we pour in, regardless, in our millions
trying to control the inevitable, eternal migration of mountain and sand and sea
and battle with the problem of living in a way that creates least harm

Back home it is tattier
less comfortable and predictable
where the challenge of interacting with the chaos is more visible
and I feel once again the edge of anxiety
and to the thrill of riding the wave

Back home to the family and the community and the sad absence of Pete
the familiar trees
and the space and the noise
and the call of the Tinker Barbet and Heuglins Robin
and the knowledge of friendships in far places
and 8 different kind of plants hanging of the rocks at Noorhoek

My passport is expiring soon, so I get to look forward to a visit to Makombe Complex in the near future.  Great!  Going there always proves to be an unforgettable experience, don’t you find?  The thought of it arouses the same feelings as one would get when scheduling a dentist’s appointment – except you  can anticipate more pain.

I admit that I could be more positive about the whole idea given that it also holds the promise of remarkable things.  For instance, I’ll be met by hundreds and hundreds of people, all welcoming me to the unbelievable day that lies ahead.   And this well before I’ve even entered the complex.  It’s good to have Zimbabwean people from every corner of the country coming together for one cause.

The R.G.’s office also boasts staff of note.  I’ve often wondered how so many people, with the same disposition, came to be employed and work in the same place.  These folk are really keen to get the job done such that they don’t even have time to smile or to use time-wasting words like ‘please’ and ‘thank you’.  The staff members are also excellent listeners, waiting for you to recount your entire story before passing you on to another colleague so that you can retell it once again … from the beginning.

Every circus must be kept running by its operational procedures.  Makombe has its share, complete with coded forms to be filled in black ink only and innumerable rules such as, ‘bribing officials is strictly prohibited’.  Part of the process involves an extensive tour of the complex as one is referred from officer to officer, and moved from room 213 to window 24 (logically).  The efficiency of these systems is clear from the backlog figures consistently reported.

Thus, in my new frame of mind, I’m prepared to be overwhelmed by every smell and I submit myself to learn a thorough lesson in patience.  I look forward to sharpening my skills in deciphering ambiguous instructions and navigating difficult situations.  And when it is all over, I’ll take comfort in the knowledge that this visit will not be the last.  The unique experience will be repeated many more times in my life – to rectify errors, to check if the document is ready, should I lose the document, when I get married, when I have a child, when that child needs an ID and passport, and then I’ll have another child …

Trevor Ncube is the proprietor of M&G Media, owner of the Mail & Guardian; he is also publisher of the Zimbabwean newspapers The Standard, The Zimbabwe Independent and NewsDay. Here’s come recent reflections from Trevor:

Zimbabwe is neither Tunisia nor Egypt. Far from it! In fact, Zimbabwe’s political predicament is far worse than that of these two North African countries before their recent revolutions.

But events in the two countries have certainly planted ideas in Zimbabweans’ minds that may influence the country’s future in a significant way.

Comparisons can be odious but this is an exercise worth doing in this instance. Until Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution and Egypt’s Nile Revolution, both were considered passive and docile societies. Zimbabweans are equally perceived as apathetic and docile for having tolerated Robert Mugabe’s repressive regime for so long. Their fear of Mugabe’s army, police, intelligence agents and youth militia has kept in check any desire to demand freedom through revolutionary means.

Similarly, for decades Egyptians and Tunisians lived under the paralysing fear of their leaders’ repressive apparatus – but they finally overcame the fear and liberated themselves.

Like Egypt and Tunisia, Zimbabwe has a technologically savvy young and educated population, yet South Africa, Britain and other countries have provided a safety valve and cushion for them. The rural populace has, mostly through coercion, continued to provide pivotal support for Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, thereby thwarting any efforts to create the critical mass needed for a people-power uprising.

Social media, particularly Facebook and Twitter, played a central role in the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions. Unfortunately the internet is creaky in Zimbabwe and mobile-telephone operators’ offerings lag behind the rest of the world – while also being susceptible to political arm-twisting. Current legislation renders internet service providers and mobile operators powerless against Zanu-PF bullying.

‘Degree in violence’ As in Tunisia and Egypt, many Zimbabweans consume satellite television and watch the same cable networks, such as al-Jazeera, that played a pivotal role in the success of the North African revolutions. Yet Zimbabwe’s pliant, state-controlled broadcaster must surely enjoy wider audiences by dint of affordability more than anything else. State-controlled newspapers spew government propaganda and outright lies, further bolstering Mugabe.

Perhaps the biggest difference between Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia’s Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, on the one hand, and Mugabe, on the other, is that Mugabe has an impressive record of using state violence against defenceless citizens. This is something he openly boasts about, claiming, for instance, that he has a “degree in violence”.

There is a belief about Mugabe that political power came through the barrel of the gun, and Zanu-PF was singularly responsible for this, so it will not hesitate to defend it with the gun. But Zanu-PF’s political power has seen people’s freedoms diminish, putting it in direct conflict with the people’s will.

The military, police and intelligence services in Zimbabwe long ago lost their professionalism; they see their brief as that of defending Mugabe and Zanu-PF. They have not hesitated to act against the people in quelling civil unrest or in advancing Mugabe’s political agenda during elections. There is a strong sense they would side with Mugabe were the people to revolt. It can be argued, though, that the foot soldiers may resist orders from on high to shoot, if push comes to shove.

The problem with repression is that dictators need more and not less of it to stay in power. And more repression begets anger and resentment, which require more doses of repression, which in turn create the conditions for an uprising as happened in Tunisia and Egypt. In Zimbabwe this vicious cycle can only be broken by the people taking matters into their own hands.

The North African revolutions have potent lessons for Zimbabwe. Key among these is the fact that no amount of repression can kill the people’s desire to free themselves from dictatorship. The time will come when the masses cast away their fear and claim their freedom.

Confronting the oppressors In Tunisia, the tipping point was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, an unemployed college graduate: this brought decades of pent-up feelings to the surface. There is no knowing what will cause Zimbabweans to jettison their fear and confront their oppressors. Zimbabweans fought a gallant war of liberation in the 1970s; they can do  it again.

Another powerful lesson from Tunisia and Egypt is that opposition political parties are not prerequisites for a revolution. Frustrated by weak and ineffectual opposition to their rulers, Egyptians and Tunisians stood up and filled the power vacuum. Zimbabweans find themselves in similar circumstances: the opposition has failed the people countless times.

By their very nature, opposition political parties tend to cut deals that don’t deliver a people-driven agenda. It is obvious that the current political accommodation in Zimbabwe has delivered more benefits to opposition politicians than to the people.

It is doubtful, in the circumstances, that genuine political change would come to Zimbabwe through a free and fair election. The March 2008 poll was as free and fair as any election could be, but it lacked the methodology for the transfer of power – and the situation hasn’t changed. The prospect of people power bringing change also appears  remote at the moment, but circumstances demand it.

We must avoid confusing the people with the opposition. This is the mistake Africa has made, which has resulted in a defective model of democratic transition. The opposition merely replaces a dictatorship with a newer version that still compromises the interests of the people.

Indeed, the single most important lesson from Tunisia and Egypt is that we as Zimbabweans are our own liberators. So let us stop complaining about the lack of international support. Why should the European Union, South Africa, the United States, the United Nations, the African Union or the Southern African Development Community help us when we are doing very little for ourselves? The world will only help us when we stand up and fight for our freedom and reclaim our country from Mugabe and the arrogant clique around him.

Price for freedom Regrettably, no matter how justified our struggle for freedom is, international attention and support will only come as the body count of innocent people increases on our streets. There is a huge price to be paid for freedom — history has many examples of this. The Zimbabwean masses have to do what they have got to do; the cost of doing nothing is too high.

All the ingredients for a people-driven revolution are present in Zimbabwe. These include the kleptocratic Zanu-PF elite, which thinks it is invincible and uses the bogeyman of the return of colonialism to cling to power. It includes, too, frustration with the politically clueless opposition, particularly the Movement for Democratic Change  (MDC), which is always outwitted by Zanu-PF and has failed to provide robust strategic leadership. This points to the need for the people to take charge of their own liberation.

The people are angry and hurt from years of abuse. Decades of political repression and economic mismanagement and corruption have seen the political elite get filthy rich while the majority has become destitute. Education and health infrastructure has collapsed as a result of lack of investment and the flight of skills.

The electricity, water and road infrastructures have decayed, taking a huge toll on the economy and the quality of life. The government and the struggling private sector have failed to create jobs for the hundreds of thousands of qualified youths who roam the streets.

Attempts at resolving the Zimbabwean political question through the ballot box have been frustrated by Zanu-PF’s resorting to violence and intimidation. Where these tactics have failed, Zanu-PF has simply refused to transfer power — as happened in 2008, resulting in the current political arrangement with the two MDC formations.

I have written before about the need for a “Third Way” in Zimbab we’s politics. Egypt and Tunisia tell us that perhaps the people constitute that Third Way in resolving our political impasse. Only a new beginning will suffice for Zimbabwe to regain its past glory. Sadly, both Zanu-PF and all MDC formations appear frustratingly clueless – they are caught in a conundrum in which they cannot figure out how to move the country forward.

Critically important at this juncture is that Zimbabweans debunk the childish and unhelpful attitude that equates criticism of the opposition MDC with a lack of patriotism. This is exactly the same attitude that gave us Zanu-PF. This attitude says the MDC can do no wrong, and when they do it’s not their fault because they are victims of circumstance. This is a dangerous attitude that is comfortable with mediocrity for as long as it brings change — any form of change.

Tunisia and Egypt have restored our collective faith in the power of the people. All evidence points to the fact that Zanu-PF is shaken by the North African revolutions, but is in denial mode and will respond to any nascent uprising the only way it knows best – through repression and state-led violence. Yet it is naive to believe the people will accept this as their permanent condition.