I am asked all the time (but I probably ask it just as often), “What is going to happen with the elections?” Short answer, “I don’t know, I don’t have a crystal ball, if I did, I would have more money than I do now!”
It is an interesting question, even though the result will be the same as it was last elections. Zanu PF will lose the elections, but will not lose power. MDC will win the elections, but will not take power.
Consider, 2008. End result, MDC is the largest group in parliament. Most MPs. Most seats. Most constituencies. But do they start calling themselves the “ruling party”? Do they repeal POSA in their five years as the ruling party (or repeal any laws)? Do they rule? We are a parliamentary democracy, Zimbabwe is legally ruled by parliament.
Presidential election – disputed. But the MDC’s candidate wins that, not by, but they still won. Why do they allow the losing party’ s candidate to remain at his former post? But either way, why is the former ruling party, and it’s Presidential candidate still regarded as the “ruling party”? Why does the real “ruling party” not rule?
So my prediction for 1 August 2013: Zanu PF will lose the elections, but will not lose power.
What would be really interesting – if the MDC (or anyone but the former ruling party) took a massive election victory. How would the current regime hold on to power? We know they will, but how?