Don’t hold your breath
Writing in Business Day last week, Allister Sparks argues that Zimbabwe’s inclusive government is not working – and that it needs to be scrapped. Whilst there’s a lot about the inclusive government not working that I’d agree with, the solution Sparks outlines is optimistic – if Mugabe isn’t willing to see the inclusive government work, why would he consider internationally supervised elections in which all citizens can vote – without the ability to gate keep through the voters’ roll. And in the mean time, what about Zimbabwe’s dream of a new Constitution – and a new political framework that guarantees democratic elections which can usher in a government elected freely by the people?
It’s time for South Africa, as the leading power in SADC, to say, “Enough!” If President Zuma has any political balls at all, he should tell Mugabe so during his visit to Harare this week.
He should tell him the GPA is obviously not working, that it is clear Mugabe is determined not to allow it to work, and that the South African Government is therefore going to call on SADC, as guarantor of the deal, to declare it to have been irretrievably violated and so nullified — and to demand the holding of an early election so that a new government with a genuine public mandate can take over.
This election should be supervised — not just observed — by a large team of electoral specialists from the SADC countries, especially South Africa. Moreover it should not be run on the basis of Zimbabwe’s hopelessly defective voters’ roll but by letting all adult citizens vote as has been done with the first elections of all newly independent countries in Africa.
Zuma should tell Mugabe, too, that if he and his ZANU-PF cohorts refuse to accept such a process, South Africa will press for Zimbabwe’s membership of SADC to be suspended, and for any regime that might be unilaterally installed not to be recognised by SADC and the African Union. The country would then be isolated.
Only South Africa has the influence and power to do this. If necessary we could do it unilaterally. It’s time we acted on behalf of the people of Zimbabwe and the whole region, to say nothing of our own image as a nation whose internationally assisted rebirth surely imposes a moral obligation on us.
But don’t hold your breath. Decisiveness is not Zuma’s strong suit on any issue.