The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Foundation, in collaboration with the Mass Public Opinion Institute hosted a conference recently for politicians, civil society and scholars to share their perspectives on Zimbabwe’s Transition. Among the presenters was Cyprian Nyamwamu who shared some experiences of Kenya’s transition.

In concluding his presentation Mr. Nyamwamu made the following remarks:

Monitoring and enforcing accountability in government must be made a systematic process that is carried out by political non-state actors. In Kenya this has been largely successful except that the entrenched culture of impunity makes it to secure behaviour change and governance.

The state cannot be left to reform on its own. It is the role of forces outside and inside the state to escalate the demands for reforms. This requires a deliberate construction of democratic movement that galvanises the energies to force democratic negotiations about the future of our democracies be it in Kenya or in Zimbabwe. Innovative strategies for ensuring sustainable reforms can only be realised if reforms are held within a political and transitional justice framework where reforms are broad rather than confined to some formal changes that do not open up the state to concerted reforms.

In Zimbabwe like in Kenya, democratic reforms and political transition shall not be sustainable without a thorough transitional justice agenda where public and private citizens, officers and groups get to account for violations and injustices that may have been committed in the past. A new democratic state and cohesive nation cannot be expected in countries where victors’ justice is the order of the day and where impunity has taken root.

There is need for the Inclusive government of Zimbabwe to be sustained even with it inherent limitations until the national democratic project is delivered. V.    It is our view that elections in Zimbabwe before 2013 shall not add value to the Zimbabwe democratic deficit. It is feared that elections before 2013 may precipitate a return to the multiple socio-economic, humanitarian and political crises that were witnessed in the aftermath of the 2008 elections.

It is hoped that the democratic forces in ZANU-PF, MDC, civil society, the private sector and other sectors of the political economy shall adopt an attitude of ‘no reforms no elections’. Reforms here must mean both reforms on paper and in the real world. Reforms cannot happen if the only logic of the political actors is power for the big boys. Those in power must be convinced including through positive sanctions to embrace and champion reforms for the sake of the people and the nation.

SADC must construct a better national democratic reform framework for Zimbabwe than the current one. In the 1989 Poland political Transition example, the President was offered assurances and immunities and Western European countries invested economic incentives into the reform pact that saw the end of the monolithic one-party state rule. This is important seeing as is the case that unlike Kenya, the international community seems ready to leave Zimbabwe to suffer on the ropes for longer. In the Kenyan case in the wake of the post election crisis, the international community made it clear that Kenya was too important to be left to Kenyans alone.

Hello everybody in yo great organisation! Please send me the much needed news! We r tired of this tyranny. MDC is not doing enough 2stop zanu’s rot. Am afraid pple may b butchered again next yr if it remains like this. Please do something now!
- Text message to Kubatana

Psychology Maziwisa believes that its the beginning of the end for the MDC. I’d agree with him. A recent news article suggested that Tsvangirai is going to have a hard time getting battle weary Zimbabweans to go to the polls again to vote for his party. To get people out to vote, and more importantly to defend their vote when Zanu PF steals it, the MDC is going to have to engage their brains, rather than their mouths over the next while.

“To survive, they need visionaries able to see beyond the comfort of the GPA” . . . here’s some more very good food for thought from Psychology:

If there is one line of engagement that requires originality, momentum and avoidance of stupidity it is politics. The authenticity of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) project has always been an open question and so a handicap in its own right. However, events of the last three weeks alone might yet herald the beginning of the end of that project.

Doubtless, apart from providing Zimbabweans with a breather, the primary function of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) was to give ZANU PF a new lease of life- and it has. It has also given them time to rediscover, re-group and re-energise. Nor can the effect of the Chiadzwa diamonds be under-estimated. For the rest of the country, however, the GPA has flattered to deceive and been a grievous mistake. But the GPA alone will not destroy the MDC- there are other elements at play.

First, the question of sanctions has revealed a rather treacherous and malevolent side to the MDC not least because they have dismally failed to provide a satisfactory rebuttal to accusations that the sanctions were imposed at their instigation. Indeed David Miliband’s proverbial declaration that the British government would be guided by the MDC on the subject of subjects might well have given it all away.

When history is written, when the moment of truth-telling dawns upon us, this will be counted among the most inexcusable and most unforgivable of the MDC’s actions. Indeed it will count in no small measure among the reasons for the downfall of the MDC.

Second, Tsvangirai’s position on the sanctions as a party to the GPA has been anything but clear. He has called them different things at different times. Nor has he been clear about their effect let alone removal.

For instance, a highly respected figure in Zimbabwean political circles wrote to me in confidence on the subject of sanctions and lamented: ‘Maziwisa, It’s unfortunate that Tsvangirai continues to vacillate on the sanctions issue. I have serious doubts about his capacity to run this country effectively given his flip flopping on important issues’.

And it is not just among Zimbabweans that the MDC has lost important support through the question of sanctions. Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, whose assessment of things many in the West have no choice but to consider as plausible, has constantly and unmistakably called for the removal of sanctions on Zimbabwe. This has been a huge blow to the MDC who have had no option but to join the gallery and also call for their removal although, by the look of things, they would have preferred it if Zuma said otherwise.

And it never rains for the MDC. A few weeks ago President Robert Mugabe’s long-time critic and Tsvangirai’s known ally, Ian Khama of Botswana, added insult to injury by joining the already growing number of African leaders in calling for the lifting of sanctions on Zimbabwe. That the sanctions have yet to be lifted is neither here nor there. Suffice it to say that the European Union has since expressed a desire to ‘reconsider’ its position on sanctions.

Nor can the damage occasioned by the GPA be overlooked. Quite the contrary, it has been devastating to the MDC as a party. Two weeks ago, President Robert Mugabe acted in what many, including this writer, perceived as a disturbing pattern of unacceptable unilateralism.  No question about it, President Mugabe was wrong for reasons that are not the subject of this piece.

But while being so wrong, Tsvangirai’s rather ‘stupid’ reaction was even more so- the culmination of which has since seen ZANU PF’s approval ratings rise by a considerable margin while the MDC’s plummet substantially.  It was a moment of madness. It was a schoolboy mistake from an important politician.

Make no mistake the MDC’s impulsive but characteristic decision to seek the intervention of western and foreign governments in a matter purely domestic and purely Zimbabwean met with widespread domestic and regional condemnation- a sure plus for ZANU PF and a resounding negative for the MDC.

Empirically put, 99, 9% of those I have spoken to regarding the matter believe Tsvangirai’s move gave credence to accusations that his party is foreign founded, foreign funded and foreign interested. They believe it served to confirm allegations that theirs is an outpost of foreign interests. The fact of the matter is that Tsvangirai’s statements and actions make it horrendously difficult for anyone to imagine otherwise.

And the decision has backfired big time. For example, the United Nations has bluntly dishonoured Tsvangirai’s plea. It was always going to take a lot of persuading for Jacob Zuma to even read Tsvangirai’s letter. And, apart from classifying it is as ‘a matter of concern’, the European Union has yet to heed Tsvangirai’s request. Moreover, ZANU PF has made it clear that it would reciprocate any gesture of goodwill from the EU. Back home President Mugabe has since used Tsvangirai’s mistake to announce the imminent end of the GPA, pleading with his party for an ‘acceleration of pace’ in preparation for elections at the same time.

Meanwhile, Arthur Mutambara has endorsed President Mugabe’s appointments. Oppah Muchinguri is doing everything in her power to maintain the momentum. Roy Bennett has fled the country and, in the clearest sign of desperation ever, Morgan Tsvangirai has hinted that he will not leave the GPA. In politics, as in many things in life, one ought to play with one’s cards close to one’s chest. But, then, Tsvangirai has a known propensity to inadvertently disclose party secrets and strategies.

All things considered, the political battle in Zimbabwe has become disappointingly one-sided. It has exposed MDC weaknesses and confirmed ZANU PF strengths. All told, the MDC is in big political trouble and needs to fix its mistakes. They have not done much in the GPA. Sadly they have secured higher praise in certain quarters than their record in government justifies. To survive, they need visionaries able to see beyond the comfort of the GPA.

Zimbabwean people speak out . . . here are a few questions from a Kubatana subscriber.

1. When the municipal police raid vendors, where do they put the merchandise coz the bulk of times the raided stuff does not reach the police station?

2. Why do police raid people trying to make a living by selling when the council and the government they are serving can’t create jobs to absorb those people? Do they want to turn them all into thieves?

3. Where is the money being collected at Toll Gates going if roads remain that bad even around cities when the people collecting the money are cruising in modern-mech cars?

4. Besides getting high perks, chasing vendors from the streets, and involving in corrupt land deals what else do the council administrators do on a normal day?

It’s a disgrace, God help us.

Either Morgan Tsvangirai is short on brains by saying that he won’t contest the result of Zimbabwe’s 2011 poll, or he’s got a direct line to that famous World Cup winner predicting octopus from Germany. One of Kubatana’s SMS subscribers texted us this question recently: Did octopus predict tsvangirai victory in next polls?

The Union for Sustainable Democracy recently released this statement:

Prime Minister Tsvangirai must order Chombo’s investigation

The Union for Sustainable Democracy urges Zimbabwean Prime Minister Tsvangirai to act decisively by ordering a swift probe into minister Chombo’s alleged corruption and misconduct.

Yesterday the MDC issued a Press Release calling upon ‘… the inclusive government to urgently investigate Local Government, Rural and Urban Development minister, Ignatius Chombo.’

While USD shares the view that Chombo has become nothing short of a menace to local governance as he continually disrupts the free flow of competent services, we bemoan the fact that, despite being the majority party in the unity government, all the MDC does is call upon the unity government to investigate Chombo.

Of course Chombo should be arrested, tried and, if convicted, sacked. However, if the MDC itself does not move to implement the investigation of Chombo, who the hell will? Why Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai does not simply go ahead and order an investigation is baffling to everyone who has put their trust in the MDC.

It is this kind of timidity and stunning lack of clout that enables ZANU PF – supposedly the junior partner in the inclusive government – to trample on the MDC with arrogance and impunity. Progress has stalled on many fronts because of this seemingly political ineptitude on the part of the MDC.

It is a facile to suggest that the MDC as a party and the MDC as a partner in the inclusive government are two separate entities. Of course they are one and the same.

If instituting a mere investigation is too daunting a task, how much more frightening must it be for the MDC to approach President Mugabe on more fundamental political reforms? And what is the prospect of doing so successfully?

USD calls on the MDC to rethink its approach to dealing with issues in the so-called inclusive government.

Issued by the Information & Publicity Department Union for Sustainable Democracy www.usd.org.zw